Friday’s session did not bring any progress in Europe. The BMI index for the Chinese industry confirms earlier signs of “fast” data, indicating a cold in April (a fall from 51.9pts to 51.1pts). Due to a very definite reading of the service sector. GDP growth in Europe is more or less in line with expectations, with a slight positive surprise in France, unfortunately offset by a decline in GDP in Germany (lower than consensus reading results by revision of data for Q4 2020, but dynamics -1.7% q / q .Square size is definitely not a reason to be happy). Inflation in the euro area rose to 1.6%. YoY, with predictions that are less than twice as high as analysts predict, has no reason to worry so far. Major continental stock markets are still waiting for the May stimulus for economies as a result of the easing of restrictions and the expiration of epidemics, but with double-digit earnings rates this year, it is difficult to say that it has not been nearly ruled out.
The WIG20 fell 0.6 percent on Friday. An increase of almost neutral mWIG and sWIG80 was 0.6 percent. He was definitely the negative hero of the day KGHMThis is a decrease of 2.8 percent. Massive revenue of 300 million PLN. The difference in the sector of global copper producers is already comparable to March, and gives the confidence that the behavior of yesterday’s raw materials is outlined at a local minimum.
Yesterday, Europe rebounded sharply, with the US session disappointing, where the S&P 500 rose a modest 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq fell 0.5 percent. The mood in the US stock market has been very modest for more than two weeks. Investment banks unanimously create tension based on the fact that “this is no better than 2Q2021”, Bank of America has issued another statement threatening inflation based on references to it in the company’s statements.. Of course, although fears of a rise in prices from March and February are likely to recur, especially in the context of the recent behavior of commodities, in the context of the central bank’s rhetoric, we hope that time will come for inflation only in Q32021, if inflation behaves differently than expected. Meanwhile, the attractiveness of the US market has increased significantly. The current ending season is the best of more than a decade, with the profit dynamics hitting 45.8% on Friday. y / y, 15 pp above expectations two weeks ago. There can be no question of overheating, wskaźnik Fear & Greed Is already at a neutral level, so we believe it is wrong to look for historical analogies to other “peak” periods for the economy. Our basic view is to recover from the top, and although the distance from the peaks as a whole is very small, we believe that we are currently dealing with a kind of superficial correction. Until this is done, even if institutional investors are skeptical, it will be sufficient to meet the demand from individual investors, in conjunction with planned purchases.
We are also positive about the WIG20. Despite the somewhat negative mood in the world, The WSE must surpass foreign marketsTo “catch up” to Europe with yesterday’s gains. In the medium term, banks may perform more favorably, while game makers and Alegro’s estimates are more realistic, with opportunities for raw materials companies favorable.
Dom Investigizni Jelian sp. Z oo May 4, 2021 Pre-Session Commentary
Kamil Chisovsky, Director of the Analysis and Investment Advisory Committee on CFA, DI Cellion.
Own collection based on data published on the websites www.reuters.com, www.bloomberg.com, www.macronext.com, www.marektwatch.com, www.news.google.com, www.ft.com, www.bankier. pl, www.pb.pl, assuming the above data is correct, complete and not misleading, however, it has not been verified independently. This study is common in nature and cannot be the sole basis for any investment decision of its recipient. The current study cannot be interpreted as a recommendation by Dom Investigator Jelian SP. z o. o Within the meaning of art. On trading in financial instruments on July 29, 2005 76. Dom Investigator Jelian S.P. z oo and the author is not responsible for the consequences of the investment decisions made based on the information and ideas contained in this study, if due diligence is exercised in preparing them.