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It does not significantly change its political evolution. It is one of five southern states that voted for separatist George Wallace in 1968 and joins Virginia as one of two southern states to oppose Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
This year, no other US government feels more important than this:
- Pitton’s razor-thin Georgia victory was decisive in his command election college victory
- The honesty of its GOP election officials countered Trump’s allegations of voter fraud
- Its dual Senate votes will determine which party controls the US Senate, which has major implications for what Biden can (or will not) do in the first two years of his presidency.
What kind of swing state would Georgia be?
The question for Georgia is, do democratic gains signify real change or a canal of water? After all, in swing states, there are those who are permanent in a division like Florida and Ohio, switching from one party to another to reliably support one, like Virginia, and there are also Blooke states.
In 2008 Barack Obama previously turned two red southern states into blue. But despite Virginia’s reliance on the Democratic essay in every presidential election and now seen as a credible blue like any other U.S. government, North Carolina has returned to the Republicans, topping the Democrats’ target list.
With some indication of the results of the double Senate race in Georgia on January 5, Stacey Abrams held the 2018 governor contest with her organization The New Georgia after losing there.
The goal of Democrats, who have long wanted to appeal to minority voters, is to get non-voters and engage younger voters. In fact doing so helped them succeed in Georgia.
“We have seen dramatic turnout among communities that do not come first in the minds of candidates. We have seen their engagement, encouragement and their departure,” CNN said on election day in November.
Part of it may come down to focusing. Democrats succeeded in focusing on national efforts in Georgia. The Texas Democrats were frustrated and defeated when they did not pay much attention to the visits of national candidates.
But the most important thing I took from our conversation last week was that the parties are constantly changing. Today’s Democrats and Republicans cannot be identified in the future.
Our phone conversation, lightly edited for length and flow, is below:
A decade-long transition to any purple
What things: What is going on in Georgia, broadly speaking, is now moving towards Democrats?
Gillespie: What we have seen over the past decade is that Democrats are increasing their margins in statewide elections in Georgia. They got more votes. They are bridging the gap between them and the Republicans. So, if they’re going to continue on that path, it’s a matter of time before the Democrats go past the Republicans on the ballot.
Winning the presidential election is only a data point, so I can not, and I can not yet make a trend towards it. I suspect we are entering an era of competition between Democratic and Republican candidates that I expect to continue to see the narrowest margins where Democrats win statewide elections Some elections and some Republican elections.
I don’t think Georgia is blue by any extension of imagination, but it is moving towards a kind of purple, and I would not be surprised if we were there for the next decade or so.
A new change is changing the state
What things: How is Biden winning Georgia better than Carter winning Georgia, or Wallace before that?
Southern whites were a firm part of the new treaty alliance, which began to change after the civil rights movement. It didn’t happen overnight. This took a long time. It culminated in the 2000s, at the beginning of the decade, with the administrative victory of Sony Bertou and the change of party of control in the House of Representatives. It then peaked at the end of the decade in 2010, when all statewide offices were won by Republican candidates.
This is a very different change than what is happening now. We do not see a big change in the number of white voters in the state of Georgia, nor do we have the number of white democratic voters in Georgia. What we see is the growth of a non-population and a non-electorate that tends to lean the Democrats in its voting behavior. That, along with the sheer number of white Democrat voters, makes the state more competitive.
We need to try to get both Democrats and outside groups to truly vote so that Democrats can reach out to voters, register them to vote, and then educate and mobilize them.
Democrats need an alliance
Gillespie: One thing we have seen in the last 20 years in the state: the volume of African American votes is 30% of the registered voters in the state.
As for the fact that 90% of their voting behaviors are Democrats, they are the majority Democrats in the state.
But you can’t win with 90% of the 30% of the population, so you need a small number of white voters. Unlike neighboring states, Georgia’s Democrats are in a position to get 30% of the white electorate.
Unlike Georgia, South Carolina or Alabama or Mississippi, it has the fastest growing Asian American and Hispanic population.
Although black voters grew in the 2000s, this growth has been greater in the 2010s with more Asian American and Hispanic voters. They make up 3% of the electorate registered in 2012, and 6% of the electorate registered in this election cycle, and they break with the Democrats. If you all want to vote, you can put together a successful electoral alliance with African Americans, Asian Americans, Hispanics and liberal white voters.
Atlanta is bringing new voters to the state
What things: Why are white voters in Georgia more generous than those in neighboring southern states?
Gillespie: Part of because Atlanta is a financial hub, a technology hub, a hub for the arts. Atlanta attracts well-educated professional-type voters who are democratic in their orientation. Are you coming to work for major universities, are you coming to work in technology or have you come to Georgia to work in the arts and entertainment industry in Atlanta, one of the Fortune 500 companies. These voters are considered Democrats in their orientation. They also do not belong to the region. And they bring different values with them.
The parties will change in the future
What things: This is the state that voted for George Wallace 52 years ago. How will this be in 50 years?
Gillespie: I don’t know how it will be politically in 50 years. That’s a lot of the time. With a breakthrough election, I can not be far off in the future. So I would like to hesitate to read the data I have now.
When my colleagues and I talk about changing statistics in the state, I want to be clear that we are not making a ‘statistics rule’ type of argument.
In particular, Georgia is now more democratic because it has a colorful population, and they are democratically oriented.
It is not possible to say that 20 or 40 or 50 years from now these people are still going to be democratically oriented. A lot can change.
It can be said that America can get a handle on its racism issue. You can see people making less political decisions based on ethnic identity.
The parties may also change their attitudes. We have seen that happen. One hundred years ago, the Democrats, the separatist party, who would have thought that it would be the party of civil rights today? But it happened because the party changed its policies on these issues.
Or who would have thought that Lincoln’s party would be Donald Trump’s party?
The parties we know today may be different. They will no longer be there, so I can’t guess so far into the future. I think it is important to understand that voting behavior and party identities change and that they are subject to change depending on what political changes are taking place and what decisions our society makes based on what issues they want to argue for.